Climate Negotiation Dyadic Relations
45,012 statements · 1995–2024 · 74 UNFCCC conferences
Xun Pang
Professor
School of International Studies, Peking University
Director, PKU Analytics Lab for Global Risk Politics
Political methodologist and professor of international relations. Research focuses on causal inference, Bayesian statistics, longitudinal data modeling, and AI–social science interdisciplinary innovation. Associate Editor of Political Analysis.
Collaborators
Overview
A dyadic record of cooperation and conflict in international climate negotiations. A large language model was applied to 74 years of Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB) conference reports, extracting 45,012 directed bilateral statements among 401 nations and negotiating blocs (1995–2024). Each statement is coded as one of five relations (speaking on behalf, support, agreement, delay, opposition) and tagged with one of 38 negotiation topics. Raw passages from ENB are preserved alongside each coded relation, supporting both quantitative network analysis and close reading.
Explore the dataset across four dimensions: (1) bilateral country dyads, (2) negotiation topics, (3) per-conference snapshots, and (4) the full quote corpus.
At a Glance
Yearly cooperation/conflict balance, most-active speakers, and topic distribution — drill deeper in the tabs above.
Cooperation vs Conflict Over Time
Annual statement counts — green = cooperation, red = conflict
Most-Active Speakers & Targets
Top 12 countries / blocs by total mentions (purple = bloc)
Negotiation Topics
Top 20 topics, sized by statement count
Related Research & Sources
Selected work on UNFCCC negotiation dynamics + LLM-based political-text annotation, plus the institutional sources
Participation, Cooperation and Conflict in UN Climate Negotiations
Castro, P., Kristof, A., Kammerer, M., & Cogne, F.
Scientific Data (Nature), 2025 — closest precedent: an automated-coding dataset built from ENB transcripts (1995–2023) with hand-coded validation.
Dynamic networks of negotiation for international climate change cooperation
Authors via Environmental Sociology (Taylor & Francis)
Environmental Sociology, 2025 — extracts country co-mentions from COP high-level segment speeches to map dynamic negotiation networks.
Coalitions in the Climate Change Negotiations
Klöck, C., Castro, P., Weiler, F., & Blaxekjær, L. Ø. (eds.)
Routledge, 2020 — foundational edited volume on coalition dynamics at the UNFCCC.
The evolution of climate justice claims in global climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC
Lefstad, L., et al.
Critical Policy Studies, 2023 — critical discourse analysis of ENB COP reports across COP15/19/21/24.
Large language models as a substitute for human experts in annotating political text
Heseltine, M., & Clemm von Hohenberg, B.
Research & Politics (Sage), 2024 — methodological foundation for LLM-based annotation of political text used here.
Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB)
International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
Primary source corpus — authoritative daily reporting from UN environment & sustainable-development negotiations since 1992.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Treaty body & Conference of the Parties (COP)
Institutional context for the negotiations covered (1995 New York meeting through COP29 / Bonn 2024).