CHISOLS: Change in Source of Leader Support (v5.0)CHISOLS 领导人支持来源变化数据集 (5.0 版)

CHISOLS identifies, for every state-year from 1919 to 2018, whether a change of national leader also brought a change in the domestic societal groups on which the leader depends to stay in power — the leader's source of leader support (SOLS). The distinction matters because leader turnover alone often changes little, whereas a shift in the supporting coalition predicts changes in foreign policy, alliance commitments and treaty compliance.

Hosted here is the state-year file: counts and indicators for major and minor SOLS changes, leader transitions, regime transitions, and a democracy indicator. The companion leader-level file (one row per leader) has a different unit of observation and is delivered as a source file rather than hosted.

Note that the source URL listed in the original task sheet (a Harvard Dataverse collection) is dead; the data were obtained from the project site chisols.org.

CHISOLS 逐一判断 1919–2018 年间每个国家-年里，领导人更替是否同时带来了「领导人支持来源」（source of leader support, SOLS）的变化——即领导人赖以维持权力的国内社会群体是否发生了改变。这个区分很关键：单纯的领导人更替往往没什么实质影响，而支持联盟本身的变动则能预测外交政策、联盟承诺与条约遵守行为的转向。

此处托管的是国家-年层数据：SOLS 重大与轻微变化的计数和指示变量、领导人更替、政权转型，以及民主与否的指示变量。配套的领导人层文件（一行一位领导人）观测单位不同，作为原始文件交付，不单独托管。

另需说明：原任务清单给出的 Harvard Dataverse 链接已失效，本数据取自项目官网 chisols.org。