Risk Analysis风险分析
Derived risk perception metrics: conflict intensity index, Goldstein distribution, tone-Goldstein correlation, and most-cited events衍生风险感知指标：冲突强度指数、戈尔茨坦分布、语调-戈尔茨坦相关性，以及被引用最多的事件
Conflict Risk Index Over Time冲突风险指数随时间变化
Monthly risk index = (material conflict + 0.5 × verbal conflict) / total events × 100, by direction. Higher values indicate more adversarial interactions.
月度风险指数 =（实质冲突 + 0.5 × 言语冲突）/ 事件总数 × 100，按方向计算。 数值越高表示互动越具对抗性。
Goldstein Score Distribution戈尔茨坦分值分布
Histogram of individual event Goldstein scores by direction. Negative = conflict, positive = cooperation.
按方向划分的单条事件戈尔茨坦分值直方图。负值 = 冲突，正值 = 合作。
Tone vs Goldstein Density语调与戈尔茨坦密度
2D density of events by media tone (x) and Goldstein score (y). Strong correlation would show events concentrated along the diagonal.
事件按媒体语调（x）与戈尔茨坦分值（y）的二维密度。强相关 会表现为事件沿对角线集中分布。
Most-Cited Events被引用最多的事件
Top 20 events by news mentions count — the most widely reported US-China interactions
按新闻提及次数排名前 20 的事件——报道最广泛的中美互动
| Date日期 | Direction方向 | Event事件 | Actor1行为体1 | Actor2行为体2 | Goldstein戈尔茨坦值 | Tone语调 | Mentions提及次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-30 | CHN→USA | Consult | WUHAN | CHICAGO | 2.8 | -5.26 | 8,932 |
| 2020-02-01 | USA→CHN | Reduce relations | AMERICAN | CHINESE | -4 | -5.24 | 5,440 |
| 2020-01-31 | CHN→USA | Consult | WUHAN | CHICAGO | 2.8 | -5.59 | 5,053 |
| 2020-01-30 | USA→CHN | Consult | CHICAGO | WUHAN | 1.9 | -6.19 | 4,357 |
| 2020-01-25 | USA→CHN | Consult | UNITED STATES | CHINA | 1.9 | -5.9 | 4,203 |
| 2020-01-31 | USA→CHN | Consult | CHICAGO | WUHAN | 1.9 | -5.82 | 4,138 |
| 2020-01-25 | CHN→USA | Consult | CHINA | UNITED STATES | 2.8 | -6.13 | 4,120 |
| 2015-06-27 | USA→CHN | Provide aid | FLORIDA | CHINA | 7 | -1.24 | 3,814 |
| 2020-01-24 | CHN→USA | Consult | WUHAN | CHICAGO | 2.8 | -5.12 | 3,792 |
| 2019-05-10 | USA→CHN | Consult | WASHINGTON | CHINESE | 2.8 | -3.5 | 3,729 |
| 2019-05-10 | CHN→USA | Consult | CHINESE | WASHINGTON | 1.9 | -3.57 | 3,583 |
| 2020-01-30 | USA→CHN | Consult | DALLAS | CHINA | 1.9 | -3.67 | 3,376 |
| 2017-11-09 | CHN→USA | Engage in diplomatic cooperation | CHINA | UNITED STATES | 8 | 3.19 | 3,335 |
| 2016-04-22 | CHN→USA | Express intent to cooperate | NANJING | HAWAII | 4 | -0.71 | 3,231 |
| 2023-02-15 | CHN→USA | Disapprove | BEIJING | UNITED STATES | -2 | -3.48 | 3,210 |
| 2015-01-04 | USA→CHN | Consult | NEW YORK | CHINA | 2.8 | 2.14 | 3,138 |
| 2015-01-04 | CHN→USA | Consult | CHINA | NEW YORK | 1.9 | 2.14 | 3,120 |
| 2015-06-29 | USA→CHN | Consult | HAWAII | NANJING | 2.8 | -0.7 | 3,082 |
| 2016-04-24 | CHN→USA | Express intent to cooperate | NANJING | HAWAII | 4 | -0.5 | 3,062 |
| 2020-01-24 | USA→CHN | Consult | WASHINGTON | WUHAN | 1.9 | -5.67 | 2,976 |