Databases/GDELT US-China
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Risk Analysis

Derived risk perception metrics: conflict intensity index, Goldstein distribution, tone-Goldstein correlation, and most-cited events

Conflict Risk Index Over Time

Monthly risk index = (material conflict + 0.5 × verbal conflict) / total events × 100, by direction. Higher values indicate more adversarial interactions.

Goldstein Score Distribution

Histogram of individual event Goldstein scores by direction. Negative = conflict, positive = cooperation.

Tone vs Goldstein Density

2D density of events by media tone (x) and Goldstein score (y). Strong correlation would show events concentrated along the diagonal.

Most-Cited Events

Top 20 events by news mentions count — the most widely reported US-China interactions

DateDirectionEventActor1Actor2GoldsteinToneMentions
2020-01-30CHN→USAConsultWUHANCHICAGO2.8-5.268,932
2020-02-01USA→CHNReduce relationsAMERICANCHINESE-4-5.245,440
2020-01-31CHN→USAConsultWUHANCHICAGO2.8-5.595,053
2020-01-30USA→CHNConsultCHICAGOWUHAN1.9-6.194,357
2020-01-25USA→CHNConsultUNITED STATESCHINA1.9-5.94,203
2020-01-31USA→CHNConsultCHICAGOWUHAN1.9-5.824,138
2020-01-25CHN→USAConsultCHINAUNITED STATES2.8-6.134,120
2015-06-27USA→CHNProvide aidFLORIDACHINA7-1.243,814
2020-01-24CHN→USAConsultWUHANCHICAGO2.8-5.123,792
2019-05-10USA→CHNConsultWASHINGTONCHINESE2.8-3.53,729
2019-05-10CHN→USAConsultCHINESEWASHINGTON1.9-3.573,583
2020-01-30USA→CHNConsultDALLASCHINA1.9-3.673,376
2017-11-09CHN→USAEngage in diplomatic cooperationCHINAUNITED STATES83.193,335
2016-04-22CHN→USAExpress intent to cooperateNANJINGHAWAII4-0.713,231
2023-02-15CHN→USADisapproveBEIJINGUNITED STATES-2-3.483,210
2015-01-04USA→CHNConsultNEW YORKCHINA2.82.143,138
2015-01-04CHN→USAConsultCHINANEW YORK1.92.143,120
2015-06-29USA→CHNConsultHAWAIINANJING2.8-0.73,082
2016-04-24CHN→USAExpress intent to cooperateNANJINGHAWAII4-0.53,062
2020-01-24USA→CHNConsultWASHINGTONWUHAN1.9-5.672,976